Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few politicians or activists want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
